Research

Abstract: We study how a major retailer's adoption of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) influences the authorization decisions of other retailers in local markets. Exploiting Dollar General's chain-wide SNAP adoption in 2004 and using a difference-in-differences design, we find that the number of other SNAP-authorized grocery stores increases by 15 percent, with event study estimates showing that the effects persist and grow over time. We find evidence for three mechanisms. First, individual SNAP enrollment increases following Dollar General's adoption, expanding the customer base and making SNAP authorization more attractive to other retailers. Second, spillovers are larger in concentrated markets, consistent with strategic interdependence where firms face stronger incentives to respond to rivals' SNAP adoption. Third, effects are stronger in counties with low initial SNAP coverage, where Dollar General’s adoption may reduce uncertainty about program viability or signal previously unmet demand to other retailers. These findings suggest that complementarities in retailers’ participation decisions extend program access beyond directly treated firms and highlight the important role of private market dynamics in delivering public assistance.

Abstract: We examine the impact of Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests on sales of minority-owned food service establishments in the United States. Using a stacked difference-in-differences design with annual establishment-level data, we find that protests increase sales by 8.9 percent, with event study estimates gradually increasing to 18.5 percent in the eighth year after the first local protest. Protests reduce minority poverty and increase minority in-migration, thereby expanding the local market, with larger gains in areas with higher minority business density and lower market concentration. These findings suggest that social movements can generate sustained economic benefits for minority-owned businesses.

Abstract: We conduct a two-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial to study the impact of technical training via a mobile application for grape farmers in China. Our results show that farmers with access to technical videos on mobile devices significantly improved their knowledge and perceived their grapes to be of higher quality. Objective measurements support these claims, showing an increase in grape sweetness by 0.30 standard deviations. However, farmers who received aspirational videos in addition to technical content did not experience an increase in the sweetness of their grapes despite having improved knowledge. Farmers sustained their engagement with the app and retained higher knowledge levels two years after the intervention, during which those who received technical training also saw long-term improvements in yield, revenue, and prices. Our findings highlight the potential of mobile technology in improving agricultural practices at scale and offer insights for designing effective training programs for farmers in developing countries.

Abstract: Between January 2020 and July 2024, American consumers experienced a 26% increase in food prices, including a 12.4% year-over-year increase in August 2022—the sharpest rise in over four decades. Food price inflation in the 2020s outpaced inflation in other sectors, diverging from historical trends, particularly impacting lower-income households, who devote nearly a third of their household budgets to food. To elucidate the drivers behind food price increases, we employ a recently developed decomposition method that distinguishes between supply and demand shocks in both food-at-home and food-away-from-home categories; supply shocks signal input cost changes, while demand shocks represent shifts in consumer willingness to pay. We document a significant shift in inflationary dynamics: pre-pandemic (1992-2019), supply shocks accounted for over 77% of food-at-home price increases, while post-pandemic (January 2020 - July 2024), demand shocks played a much larger role, responsible for 43% of price increases. Across all food categories, the share of price increases explained by the demand side grew from 36% to 48%, between the pre- and post-pandemic-onset period. This shift suggests that, unlike previous inflationary periods, demand-side pressures—including excess savings, shortage concerns, and tight labor markets—have significantly contributed to recent food price increases. Our analysis highlights the need for policymakers to consider both supply chain improvements and demand-side interventions to effectively address surging food prices, if their goal is to shield vulnerable populations and reinforce food security in the post-pandemic era. We review these policy approaches and discuss their potential impacts.

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Abstract: We examine how U.S. tariff announcements affect upstream food prices and provide new evidence on the speed and heterogeneity of market adjustments relevant to food security and trade policy. Using 3 million product-level daily wholesale prices from 11 U.S. terminal markets surrounding the 2025 tariff announcements, we construct high-frequency price indices with verified country-of-origin tags and estimate difference-in-differences models centered on announcement dates. This approach isolates direct policy effects across major trading partners and commodity categories while avoiding retail-level confounding from promotions and markups. Results show rapid yet uneven price adjustments, with perishable goods and imports from China and Mexico exhibiting the strongest and fastest responses, and initial divergences narrowing within months. Adjustment speed and magnitude vary systematically with supply-chain characteristics. Our findings shed light on how trade policy shocks propagate through wholesale markets and their implications for short-term price dynamics and food security.

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Abstract: This paper provides nationwide evidence of how short-term exposure to fine particulate matter causally affects household retail shopping behavior in the United States. Linking detailed household transaction records with daily air quality data, we employ an instrumental-variable strategy that exploits exogenous, wind-driven variation in pollution. We find that air pollution reduces both store visits and retail spending. Consumers disproportionately reduce purchases of nonessential goods and partially shift toward online shopping. Higher-income and younger households show greater avoidance, whereas vulnerable groups show limited capacity to adjust. Using air-quality forecasts, we find evidence of strategic intertemporal substitution, with consumers increasing current shopping when poor air quality is forecasted. Our findings reveal that air pollution generates behavioral responses in consumption, with implications for environmental policy and information provision.

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Abstract: This study examines the effects of the U.S. School Meals Program, namely the School Breakfast Program (SBP) and the National School Lunch Program (NSLP), on reducing racial disparities in children’s diet quality between non-Hispanic Black and White children. Drawing from the 2007-2018 waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data, we assessed both daily and meal-specific diet quality measures, using Healthy Eating Index (HEI) and meal-specific Healthy Indices (HI), and found that Black children who do not consume school meals generally have a less healthy diet compared to their White counterparts. However, participation in the School Meals Program significantly improves the diet quality of Black children, thereby reducing the observed racial disparity. The advantages of the School Meals Program are particularly evident in the weekend drop in diet quality among Black children who consume school meals, and in the wider gap in diet quality as Black children age out of the program after high school. These findings underscore the crucial role of the School Meals Program in addressing racial disparities in diet quality and emphasize the need for policy reforms to support these initiatives. Additionally, our results highlight the urgent need for further research into the factors influencing children’s diet quality and interventions to improve meal quality across all racial groups.

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Abstract: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) serves as the largest federal nutrition assistance program, yet many eligible households do not participate. Administrative burdens, stigma, and geographic access constraints create substantial barriers to program enrollment. We examine whether the SNAP Online Purchasing Pilot (OPP), which enables beneficiaries to redeem benefits online, affects program participation. Using a difference-in-differences design with state-level data from 2017 to 2021, we find that online purchasing increases SNAP participation per capita by 1.7 percentage points and raises participation among individuals below the poverty level by 10.9 percentage points. Event-study estimates show effects emerging within three months of implementation and persisting thereafter. Online purchasing generates larger participation gains in states with higher computer ownership and internet access but lower vehicle availability, suggesting that digital infrastructure and transportation constraints play important roles. These findings indicate that enabling online benefit redemption can expand access to safety net programs, though benefits vary across populations based on infrastructural disparities.

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Abstract: This paper examines the factors contributing to food price inflation in China from 2016 to 2024 using a SHapley Additive exPlanations decomposition approach. By analyzing eighteen economic variables, we identify key contributors of food price inflation, including exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment. We also find a notable shift after 2020: while international transport costs were important factors before, domestic influences such as GDP growth and agricultural output have gained prominence. This transition indicates China’s increasing economic self-reliance and suggests that its food price inflation is becoming progressively insulated from global economic fluctuations. These findings carry important implications for policy development and understanding China’s evolving position in global agricultural markets.

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