Research

Abstract: We study how a major retailer’s adoption of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) affects local retailers’ authorization decisions. Using Dollar General’s chain-wide SNAP adoption in 2004 and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the number of SNAP-authorized grocery stores rises by about 15 percent. We identify three mechanisms. First, SNAP enrollment rises following adoption, expanding the customer base. Second, effects are larger in more concentrated markets, consistent with strategic responses. Third, effects are strongest in underserved counties, where adoption reduces uncertainty about program viability. The results highlight the role of private market dynamics in delivering public assistance.

Abstract: We examine the impact of Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests on sales of minority-owned food service establishments in the United States. Using a stacked difference-in-differences design with annual establishment-level data, we find that protests increase sales by 8.9 percent, with event study estimates gradually increasing to 18.5 percent in the eighth year after the first local protest. Protests reduce minority poverty and increase minority in-migration, thereby expanding the local market, with larger gains in areas with higher minority business density and lower market concentration. These findings suggest that social movements can generate sustained economic benefits for minority-owned businesses.

Abstract: We conduct a two-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial to study the impact of technical training via a mobile application for grape farmers in China. Our results show that farmers with access to technical videos on mobile devices significantly improved their knowledge and perceived their grapes to be of higher quality. Objective measurements support these claims, showing an increase in grape sweetness by 0.30 standard deviations. However, farmers who received aspirational videos in addition to technical content did not experience an increase in the sweetness of their grapes despite having improved knowledge. Farmers sustained their engagement with the app and retained higher knowledge levels two years after the intervention, during which those who received technical training also saw long-term improvements in yield, revenue, and prices. Our findings highlight the potential of mobile technology in improving agricultural practices at scale and offer insights for designing effective training programs for farmers in developing countries.

Abstract: Between January 2020 and July 2024, American consumers experienced a 26% increase in food prices, including a 12.4% year-over-year increase in August 2022—the sharpest rise in over four decades. Food price inflation in the 2020s outpaced inflation in other sectors, diverging from historical trends, particularly impacting lower-income households, who devote nearly a third of their household budgets to food. To elucidate the drivers behind food price increases, we employ a recently developed decomposition method that distinguishes between supply and demand shocks in both food-at-home and food-away-from-home categories; supply shocks signal input cost changes, while demand shocks represent shifts in consumer willingness to pay. We document a significant shift in inflationary dynamics: pre-pandemic (1992-2019), supply shocks accounted for over 77% of food-at-home price increases, while post-pandemic (January 2020 - July 2024), demand shocks played a much larger role, responsible for 43% of price increases. Across all food categories, the share of price increases explained by the demand side grew from 36% to 48%, between the pre- and post-pandemic-onset period. This shift suggests that, unlike previous inflationary periods, demand-side pressures—including excess savings, shortage concerns, and tight labor markets—have significantly contributed to recent food price increases. Our analysis highlights the need for policymakers to consider both supply chain improvements and demand-side interventions to effectively address surging food prices, if their goal is to shield vulnerable populations and reinforce food security in the post-pandemic era. We review these policy approaches and discuss their potential impacts.

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Abstract: We examine how U.S. tariff announcements affect upstream food prices and provide new evidence on the speed and heterogeneity of market adjustments relevant to food security and trade policy. Using 3 million product-level daily wholesale prices from 11 U.S. terminal markets surrounding the 2025 tariff announcements, we construct high-frequency price indices with verified country-of-origin tags and estimate difference-in-differences models centered on announcement dates. This approach isolates direct policy effects across major trading partners and commodity categories while avoiding retail-level confounding from promotions and markups. Results show rapid yet uneven price adjustments, with perishable goods and imports from China and Mexico exhibiting the strongest and fastest responses, and initial divergences narrowing within months. Adjustment speed and magnitude vary systematically with supply-chain characteristics. Our findings shed light on how trade policy shocks propagate through wholesale markets and their implications for short-term price dynamics and food security.

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Abstract: This study examines the effects of the U.S. School Meals Program, namely the School Breakfast Program (SBP) and the National School Lunch Program (NSLP), on reducing racial disparities in children’s diet quality between non-Hispanic Black and White children. Drawing from the 2007-2018 waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data, we assessed both daily and meal-specific diet quality measures, using Healthy Eating Index (HEI) and meal-specific Healthy Indices (HI), and found that Black children who do not consume school meals generally have a less healthy diet compared to their White counterparts. However, participation in the School Meals Program significantly improves the diet quality of Black children, thereby reducing the observed racial disparity. The advantages of the School Meals Program are particularly evident in the weekend drop in diet quality among Black children who consume school meals, and in the wider gap in diet quality as Black children age out of the program after high school. These findings underscore the crucial role of the School Meals Program in addressing racial disparities in diet quality and emphasize the need for policy reforms to support these initiatives. Additionally, our results highlight the urgent need for further research into the factors influencing children’s diet quality and interventions to improve meal quality across all racial groups.

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Abstract: The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is the largest federal nutrition assistance program in the United States, yet many eligible households do not participate due to administrative burdens, stigma, and geographic access constraints. We examine whether the SNAP Online Purchasing Pilot (OPP), which allows beneficiaries to redeem benefits online, affects program participation. Using a difference-in-differences design with state-level data from 2017 to 2021, we find that online purchasing increases SNAP participation per capita by 13.7 percent (1.6 percentage points) and participation among individuals below the poverty line by 11.3 percent (11 percentage points). Event-study estimates indicate effects emerge within three months and persist thereafter. Participation gains are larger in states with higher digital infrastructure (computer ownership and internet access) and greater vehicle access, indicating that online and physical access function as complements. States with higher shares of elderly residents and households with children also exhibit stronger responses. These findings suggest that enabling online benefit redemption can expand safety net access, though benefits vary systematically with local infrastructure and demographic composition.

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Abstract: The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) provides nutrition assistance to low-income pregnant women, infants, and children up to age 5. Because WIC benefits are redeemable only at authorized retailers, program effectiveness depends on store availability. Systematic analysis of WIC store density disparities is limited. Using NielsenIQ’s TDLinx database linked to county-level child population data, we examined trends in WIC store density from 2016 to 2023 across 3,143 US counties, calculating stores per 1,000 children aged 0 to 5 years and assessing disparities by urbanization, minority share, and per-capita income. We found that WIC-authorized stores among major food retailers declined 8.4% nationally, while SNAP-authorized stores increased 12.8%. WIC-authorized store density decreased from 2.44 to 2.24 stores per 1,000 children aged 0-5 years. Rural counties experienced declines nearly five times faster than metropolitan areas. Counties with higher minority populations and lower incomes consistently exhibited lower WIC store density. These patterns suggest growing challenges to WIC access in rural and underserved communities. Policies reducing administrative and financial barriers may be critical for strengthening the WIC retail network.

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Abstract: Equitable food systems require understanding the spatial evolution of food environments, yet long-term trends in the geographic distribution of fast-food restaurants remain uncharacterized. We analyzed 33-year trends in fast-food restaurant density across 3,023 US counties (1990–2022) using establishment data from the National Establishment Time Series linked to county sociodemographic and health indicators. We tested whether disparities converged or diverged over time and whether growth patterns varied by county characteristics. Nationally, density more than doubled from 0.25 to 0.54 restaurants per 1,000 population. This growth was accompanied by significant divergence as the cross-sectional standard deviation increased from 0.11 to 0.19. Growth was systematically faster in metropolitan counties, higher-income counties, counties with larger Black populations, and counties with the highest obesity and diabetes prevalence. The most rapid proliferation occurred in communities already experiencing the highest disease burden, suggesting that food environment disparities are widening along dimensions directly tied to health inequity. These findings have implications for geographically targeted interventions addressing structural determinants of diet-related disease.

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Abstract: Online redemption has expanded in U.S. nutrition assistance programs, with the potential to reduce travel and time costs associated with accessing authorized retailers. However, online grocery channels often involve platform markups and delivery-related charges that must be paid out of pocket, raising the effective price of foods purchasable with program benefits. This paper develops a simple model of household channel choice to examine the resulting access–cost tradeoff. We show that when benefits are benchmarked to in-store retail prices, online price markups reduce the food purchasing power of a fixed benefit amount, generating an adequacy wedge between intended and realized food consumption. Households facing the highest transportation costs are the most likely to switch, concentrating the purchasing-power loss among populations for whom access gains are greatest. A calibration using current SNAP parameters indicates that these markups can reduce food purchasing power by about 5–13 percent for households redeeming benefits online. We compare the fiscal implications of benefit adjustments, delivery fee subsidies, and price parity requirements to inform policy design as online redemption continues to grow.

Abstract: Understanding whether political elites maintain economic advantages during market transitions is crucial for assessing the distributional consequences of market-oriented reforms. This study examines whether political status provides rural households with advantages in accessing production resources and income opportunities during China’s recent wave of marketization, and how these advantages vary with the degree of market development. Using three waves of the China Family Database spanning 2015–2019 and employing an instrumental variable approach, we find that political elites main- tain persistent economic advantages. Relative to non-elites, cadre households exhibit 19.8 percentage points higher rates of receiving agricultural subsidies, 35.2 percentage points higher rates of owning agricultural machinery, and 11 percentage points greater likelihood of operating nonfarm businesses. As marketization advances, the sources of elite advantage shift from agriculture to commercial activities. While benefits in agricultural production weaken, reflecting reduced state-controlled rent-seeking opportunities, advantages in business operations strengthen as elites convert political capital into entrepreneurial opportunities. Our findings reveal that rural marketization in China reallocates rather than reduces inequality. This pattern suggests that even as market reforms diminish traditional avenues for political privilege, they simultaneously open new market-based opportunities that preserve elite advantage. These findings have broader implications for understanding how political power influences distributional outcomes during market transitions in developing economies.

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Abstract: This paper provides nationwide evidence of how short-term exposure to fine particulate matter causally affects household retail shopping behavior in the United States. Linking detailed household transaction records with daily air quality data, we employ an instrumental-variable strategy that exploits exogenous, wind-driven variation in pollution. We find that air pollution reduces both store visits and retail spending. Consumers disproportionately reduce purchases of nonessential goods and partially shift toward online shopping. Higher-income and younger households show greater avoidance, whereas vulnerable groups show limited capacity to adjust. Using air-quality forecasts, we find evidence of strategic intertemporal substitution, with consumers increasing current shopping when poor air quality is forecasted. Our findings reveal that air pollution generates behavioral responses in consumption, with implications for environmental policy and information provision.

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Abstract: This paper examines the factors contributing to food price inflation in China from 2016 to 2024 using a SHapley Additive exPlanations decomposition approach. By analyzing eighteen economic variables, we identify key contributors of food price inflation, including exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment. We also find a notable shift after 2020: while international transport costs were important factors before, domestic influences such as GDP growth and agricultural output have gained prominence. This transition indicates China’s increasing economic self-reliance and suggests that its food price inflation is becoming progressively insulated from global economic fluctuations. These findings carry important implications for policy development and understanding China’s evolving position in global agricultural markets.

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